“The difficulty” – John Maynard Keynes famously said – “lies not so much in developing new ideas as in escaping from old ones”. There are indeed many examples to prove his point: long-time country and regional experts tend to stick to tested approaches and underestimate drivers of change; government officials cling to the status quo and prioritise muddling through as their default option; diplomats privilege process driven and reactive decisions; even scientists, sometimes, are conditioned by “groupthink”.

Here is the full version of Antonio Missiroli’s article on strategic foresight for the BEPA Monthly Brief: BMB ISSUE 58_Missiroli (1)

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